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Free knowledge. Practical thinking.

Good plans start with better questions.

Understand supply chains, learn forecasting, and see what happens when you change a plan. Start with curiosity. Build your confidence.

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Free to exploreMade for curious minds

CONNECTED SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK ✓ BALANCED FLOW: 100% demand covered
1. Supplier 2. Factory 3. Warehouse 4. DC Hub 5. Customer Material & Receipts Flow ➔ ⬅ Order & Forecast Signal
Demand covered100%
Stock + Receipts Forecast Demand
SCENARIOS:

Forecast 100u fully covered by 80u stock + 20u receipts (0u projected ending stock).

Five connected tracks from demand to schedulingExamples before equationsLearn at your own pace
JOURNEY 01 · FOR BEGINNERS & STUDENTS

Learn the 5-Track Course

Start with everyday stories, worked Northstar bottle calculations, 25 HD narrated videos, and 250 practice questions.

Start the 499-hour curriculum →
JOURNEY 02 · FOR PRACTITIONERS & PLANNERS

Experiment in the Digital Twin Lab

Test multi-echelon lead times, factory bottlenecks, rolling-origin forecasts, and balance-sheet ensembles in your browser.

Launch Digital Twin & Tools →
JOURNEY 03 · FOR CURIOUS READERS

Explore 300+ Briefs & AllIdeas

Read concise practitioner briefs on forecasting, safety stock, MRP, finite scheduling, and everyday science in AllIdeas.

Browse the Knowledge Library →
5 TracksEnd-to-end demand to finite scheduling
25 HD Videos12-beat visual storyboards & captions
50 LessonsWorked Northstar cases & 8-hr labs
250 QuizzesInstant feedback & unsolved capstones
8 EnginesDashboard, FBS v2.0, Forecast Lab & Game
300+ BriefsPractitioner articles, guides & AllIdeas
01 / Build your foundation

One supply chain.
Five ways to understand it.

Follow the full course or start with the decision in front of you. Every track connects to the next.

STAGE 01 · DEMAND SIGNAL & DATA HYGIENE

Separate unconstrained customer demand from shipped sales

Recent monthly sales were 40, 44, and 46 bottles (baseline 43). A verified campus event adds +8 units, giving 51 fresh demand units. An existing 10-unit order is already inside the 51 forecast, so it is consumed rather than double-counted.

Fresh Demand = Baseline (43) + Verified Event (+8) = 51 units | Obligations = 51 + 6 Backlog = 57 units
Explore Track 01: Demand Planning →
Fresh Forecast51 units
Old Backlog6 units
Total Obligations57 units

499 estimated learning hours across reading, exercises, quizzes and capstones—not 499 hours of video. See how the course works.

02 / Move from knowing to doing

Make a change.
See the consequence.

Explore all tools & games ↗
03 / Take a useful idea with you

A little reading.
A clearer way to think.

Browse articles & ideas ↗
A little further from the familiar

Good ideas don't stay in one lane.

AllIdeas is a space for everyday science, patterns, perception and probability. Try a thought, change a value, and see what you notice.

Explore AllIdeas
An illustrated workbench of geometric shapes, light, patterns and everyday experiments
LIVE HOLDOUT BENCHMARK · COMPARE FORECAST MODELS

See why model choice & holdout testing matter.

Compare four classical forecasting baselines against 6 periods of held-out Northstar seasonal demand (40, 48, 55, 42, 49, 57 units). Use arrow keys or click a model tab to inspect its accuracy and bias.

P1 (40)P2 (48)P3 (55)P4 (42)P5 (49)P6 (57)
● Solid: Holdout Actuals--- Dashed: Selected Model Forecast
Holdout MAE1.5 units
Holdout WAPE3.1%
Signed Bias+0.2 units

Captures recurring 3-period seasonal peaks cleanly with minimal holdout error and near-zero bias on seasonal SKUs.

Test your own series in Forecast Lab →
04 / Intelligent Diagnostic & Decision Co-Pilot (100% Browser-Local Math)

Diagnose a planning bottleneck & compute your buffer policy.

Select your primary operational challenge and adjust your demand, variability, lead time, and service target. This deterministic engine computes statistical safety stock and reorder points locally in your browser—no external API keys or data uploads required.

QUANTITATIVE POLICY OUTPUT
Safety Stock (SS)50 units
Reorder Point (ROP)410 units
Buffer Intensity14% of LT demand

To protect a 95% cycle service level over a 9-day replenishment lead time, hold 50 units of safety stock and trigger replenishment when inventory position reaches 410 units.

Transparency note: Uses normal-approximation lead-time demand math (SS = Z × σ_d × √L, assuming independent daily demand and constant lead time). Verify distribution shape and supplier reliability before operational use.

05 / Clear Answers Before You Begin

Frequently asked questions.

Have another question? Contact the founder ↗
Is the 499-hour Supply Chain Forecasting Course completely free?

Yes. All 5 tracks, 25 HD narrated module videos, 50 worked lessons, 250 practice questions, and interactive labs are 100% free to access in your browser with no subscription or login required.

Can I study the entire website and course in Hindi?

Yes! Click the single “Open in Hindi · हिंदी में खोलें” button in the hero section at the top of this page to switch the entire website—including all 416 pages and video closed captions—into Hindi, and click it again anytime to return to English.

How does the FBS Scientific Engine v2.0 work while keeping financial PDFs private?

FBS extracts text from your 5 annual Balance Sheet PDFs and 1 Inventory Forecast PDF locally inside your browser using a local PDF worker—never uploading your files to any server—and runs a 4-model econometric & working-capital ensemble with P10/P50/P90 bands.

Who is Supply Plan Sprint: Toy Factory Express designed for?

It features two modes in a 60fps HTML5 Canvas simulation: Kid Explorer Mode (designed so even a 10-year-old can intuitively learn suppliers, factory gears, warehouse buffers, and delivery trucks) and Pro Planner Formulas Mode for practitioners.

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